DEVELOPMENT FINANCE AND ECONOMIC SPILLOVERS: STUDY OF KAZAKHSTAN’S INDUSTRIAL SUPPORT

Autori

  • Makhabbat Aubakirova L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana, Kazakhstan
  • Gulnur Raikhanova Karaganda Buketov University
  • Serik Makysh L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana, Kazakhstan
  • Gulmira Ryskeldiyeva Nazarbayev Intellectual School of Physics and Mathematics in Astana, Autonomous educational organization Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools
  • Gulmira Yessenova JSC Kazakh University of Technology and Business

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0104

Ključne reči:

development finance, input–output multipliers, Kazakhstan, structural impact, public investment, transition economy

Apstrakt

This study examines the structural effects of Development Financial

Institutions (DFIs) on Kazakhstan’s economy using an input–output (I-
O) multiplier framework. Despite growing public investment through

DFIs, empirical evidence on their sectoral impact remains scarce in
the Kazakhstani context. Addressing this gap, the research integrates

manually compiled sectoral DFI support data with national I–O ta-
bles across 68 sectors for the period 2012–2023, of which 31 sectors

received institutional support. The study’s originality lies in linking
macroeconomic structural indicators-such as output multipliers and

backward integration-with financial intervention data. The model in-
cludes investment (gross fixed capital formation), intersectoral linkag-
es, and a DFI support dummy, with export and final demand variables

excluded due to multicollinearity and stationarity concerns. The find-
ings show that DFI-supported sectors are associated with significant-
ly higher multipliers, suggesting that targeted support contributes to

stronger structural effects. While investment demonstrates diminishing

returns, backward integration remains positively correlated with eco-
nomic spillovers. The practical significance of the work lies in the fact

that its conclusions can be used in shaping public policy in Kazakhstan

and developing DFI strategies aimed at increasing structural multipli-
ers and the sustainability of the national economy.

Reference

Abor, J.Y., Dwumfour, R.A., Agbloyor, E.K. et al. Foreign direct investment and inclusive finance: do

financial markets and quality of institutions matter?. Empir Econ 67, 773–815 (2024). https://

doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02567-2

Agrarian Credit Corporation. (n.d.). Annual reports and financing programs overview. https://agrocredit.kz

Aizada, Z., Anar, Y., Ainur, M., Serik, D., & Azamat, Z. (2023). Financial planning as a tool for strength-

ening the company’s financial stability and sustainable development. Rivista Di Studi Sulla

Sostenibilità, 2023(1), 187–202. https://doi.org/10.3280/RISS2023-001011

Baiterek National Managing Holding. (n.d.). Annual reports. https://baiterek.gov.kz

Bolatbek, Y., Kakizhanova, T., Akhmetova, Z., Dildebayeva, Z., & Adiyetova, E. (2025). Creative Econ-

omy at the Nexus of Innovation, Digitalization and Education: ARDL and NARDL Approach

From Kazakhstan. ECONOMICS - Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 13(3), 147–

https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0060

Damu Entrepreneurship Development Fund. (n.d.). Annual reports. https://damu.kz

Development Bank of Kazakhstan. (n.d.). Sectoral financing data and performance reports. https://www.kdb.kz

Edo, S. Digital transformation and financial development in emerging economies: regional variations

and policy contingencies. Digit. Econ. Sustain. Dev. 3, 12 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/

s44265-025-00063-8

Faisal, F., Isiksal, A.Z., Assi, A.F. et al. Financial risk, sustainable development, natural resources and

green finance: unveiling the shadow economy in the BRICST countries. Miner Econ, 38, 397–

(2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-025-00493-y

Gollin, D., & Kaboski, J. P. (2023). New views of structural transformation: insights from recent literature. Ox-

ford Development Studies, 51(4), 339–361. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2023.2280748

Griffith-Jones, S., & Ocampo, J. A. (2018). The future of national development banks. Oxford University

Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198827948.003.0001

Griffith-Jones, S., & Tyson, J. (2012). The European Investment Bank and its Role in Regional De-

velopment and Integration. Chapter 10 in ‘The Transformations of the International Financial

System’ edited by Cintra, Marcos Antonio Macedo & Gomes, Keiti da Rocha. https://www.

stephanygj.net/papers/EIBRegDevIntegration2012.pdf

Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth,

(1), 1–25. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-006-9009-4

Hamilton G, Gaaitzen J. de Vries (2025). The structural transformation of transition economies. World

Development 191 (2025) 106977. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106977

Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics. (2022). Input–output tables of the Republic of Kazakhstan,

–2021. https://stat.gov.kz

Lambekova, A., Shuren, T., Imanbayev, A., Bekish, U., & Zhadigerova, G. (2025). Diversification

of business through digital technologies: Case study of Kazakhstan industrial companies.

ECONOMICS - Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 13(3), 429–448. https://doi.

org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0073

Leontief, W. (1986). Input-output economics (2nd ed.). Oxford University Press. https://liremarx.

noblogs.org/files/2020/02/Wassily-Leontief-Input-Output-Economics-Oxford-Universi-

ty-Press-USA-1986.pdf

Lin, J. Y., & Monga, C. (2011). Growth identification and facilitation: The role of the state in the dynam-

ics of structural change. Development Policy Review, 29(3), 259–310. https://doi.org/10.1111/

j.1467-7679.2011.00534.x

Mazzucato, M., & Penna, C. C. R. (2016). Beyond market failures: The market creating and shaping

roles of state investment banks. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(4), 305–326. https://

doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2016.1216416

Aubakirova M. et al. / Economics - Innovative and Economics Research Journal, doi: 10.2478/eoik-2025-0104

Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). Input–output analysis: Foundations and extensions (2nd ed.). Cam-

bridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511626982

Melecky M, Di Benedetta P (2023). Braced for Impact Reforming Kazakhstan’s National Financial

Holding for Development Effectiveness and Market Creation. Washington. World Bank. https://

books.google.rs/books?hl=en&lr=&id=KLXmEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=Braced+-

for+Impact+Reforming+Kazakhstan%E2%80%99s+National+Financial+Holding+for+De-

velopment+Effectiveness+and+Market+Creation&ots=b5KG1FUO5X&sig=fUt-05tX-

vAKBv4IV-KsWty1rG0o&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Braced%20for%20Impact%20

Reforming%20Kazakhstan%E2%80%99s%20National%20Financial%20Holding%20for%20

Development%20Effectiveness%20and%20Market%20Creation&f=false

McCall, J. R., & Hoyman, M. M. (2021). Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI) pro-

gram evaluation: a luxury but not a necessity? Community Development, 54(1), 91–121. https://

doi.org/10.1080/15575330.2021.1976807

Nawaz, A., Li, Z. & Su, C.W. Inquisitive exploration of green finance, social finance, and capital forma-

tion in shaping economic development: insights from BRICS Countries. Discov Sustain 5, 332

(2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00548-0

Rodrik, D. (2004). Industrial policy for the twenty-first century. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4767.

https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.617544

Rodrik, D. (2006). What’s so special about China’s exports? China & World Economy, 14(5), 1–19.

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00038.x

Sadyrova, M., Yusupov, K. & Imanbekova, B. Innovation processes in Kazakhstan: development fac-

tors. J Innov Entrep 10, 36 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731-021-00183-3

Shakeyev, S., Baineyeva, P., Kosherbayeva, A., Yessenova, G., & Zhanseitov, A. (2023). Enhancing

the Green Energy Revolution: Analyzing the Impact of Financial and Investment Processes

on Renewable Energy Projects in Kazakhstan. Economics Innovative and Economics Research

Journal, 11(1), 165–182. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.19673

Sundberg, M. (2023). Local Recruits in Development Finance Institutions: Relocating Global North-

South Divides in the International Aid Industry. The Journal of Development Studies, 59(11),

–1651. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2023.2232915

Thurlow, J. (2008). A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. In T. B. Randriama-

monjy (Ed.), Regional trade and human development in Southern Africa, 17–62. IFPRI. http://

dx.doi.org/10.2499/9780896291959

Todorova, V., Moraliyska, M., Raycheva, I. (2025). Decentralization in International Payments and the

Evolving Role of SWIFT. Collection of papers new economy, 3, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.61432/

CPNE0301001t

UNIDO. (2020). Industrial development report 2020: Industrializing in the digital age. United Nations

Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/unido-publica-

tions/2023-03/UNIDO-IDR2020-main-report-en.pdf

Warner, A. M. (2014). Sectoral investment and economic growth: A stylized model. IMF Working Paper

No. 10/36. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp14148.pdf

Yasmin, T., El Refae, G. A., Eletter, S., & Kaba, A. (2022). Examining the Total Factor Productivity

Changing Patterns in Kazakhstan: An Input-Output Analysis. Journal of Eastern European and

Central Asian Research, 9(6), 938-950. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i6.958

##submission.downloads##

Objavljeno

2025-12-01

Kako citirati

Makhabbat Aubakirova, Gulnur Raikhanova, Serik Makysh, Gulmira Ryskeldiyeva, & Gulmira Yessenova. (2025). DEVELOPMENT FINANCE AND ECONOMIC SPILLOVERS: STUDY OF KAZAKHSTAN’S INDUSTRIAL SUPPORT. ECONOMICS - INNOVATIVE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH JOURNAL, 13(4), 447–458. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0104

Broj časopisa

God. 13 Br. 4 (2025): ECONOMICS - Innovative and Economics Research Journal

Sekcija

Original Scientific Paper

Licenca

Sva prava zadržana (c) 2025 ECONOMICS - INNOVATIVE AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH JOURNAL

Creative Commons License

Ovaj rad je pod Creative Commons Aуторство-Nekomercijalno-Bez prerade 4.0 Internacionalna licenca.