IDENTIFICATION AND LEVELLING OF CRISIS PHENOMENA IN THE WORLD GRAIN MARKET IN THE 2022/23 MARKETING YEAR

Abstract

The aim of this paper is the detection crisis phenomena in the world grain
market in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), which worsened during the Russia-
Ukraine invasion on February 24, 2022. Some countries and international
organizations have recently expressed concern that the reduction of grain supply
on the world market and the rapid rise in its price. Whether the impact of the
destabilizing situation on the world grain market on the exacerbation of hunger
is an open question. In order to fill the research gap, the paper tries analysis the
global market into grain types between 2008/09 MY to 2021/22 MY and identify
on it the shares of Ukraine and Russia. Two methods are used to conduct a
comprehensive study of the grain market - fundamental and technical analysis.
The analysis of the state and dynamics of the main indicators of the world grain
market was carried out with the help of fundamental analysis. The results show
that the volume of grain production in the world and the two warring countries
are growing. Both countries supply about a quarter of all products in the overall
structure of world grain exports. Finally, the result also shows that Ukraine and
Russia are key exporters of barley, rye, wheat, and corn to low-income and least
developed countries. Grain price forecasting through technical analysis was
carried out. Based on the results obtained during the fundamental and technical
analysis, three scenarios for the development of the grain market and its impact
on the problem of hunger were proposed and given recommendations for
levelling of crisis phenomena.